Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 draws to a close and these are some expectations and predictions for the new year.

The European crises is not over and will continue to rise and fall during the first half of the year leading to appreciation of the dollar over the euro;

The US economy will do surprisingly well despite continued high unemployment and a slow real estate sector;

There will be evidence of manufacturing moving back to the US because of lack of quality controls in Asia and a repriced US labor market;

There will be enough pressure from loan demand to move interest rates up in the middle of the year but not significantly;

Municipalities will continue to get their fiscal house in order, the US government will not;

The Occupy Movement and the Tea Party will realize they are both upset about the same issue;

The US consumer will change their behavior to spend at decent levels but be more selective about what they spend it on.

I expect blue chip stocks with dividends will continue to increase the dividend.

I expect municipal bonds to have another good year in response to improving credit numbers

I expect the first level of below investment grade taxable bonds to perform well as the economy improves

I expect President Obama to be reelected in a close race with Mitt Romney

Happy New Year!!

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